Chelsea remained its undefeated record until the loss against in Away game against Newcastle. Since then, Chelsea seems getting into a bad condition, and can barely win any away games. Will this situation keep going on, or Chelsea has the strength to turn the game back into their right track? Therefore, in this time, we run statistical analysis to see whether Chelsea is able to get rid of the current situation.
This time, we collect more data than last time we worked on Manchester United. This time, we will do something different. We run a clustering with two clusters since the team has a seemingly apparent margin in their game results this season.
Here is our clustering result:
Take a look at the Home variable, the number of Cluster 0 is o, which means the away games; the number of Cluster 1 is 0.8, which means that most of the games in this cluster are home games. And then, we take a look at the Goal and GoalAgainst of these two clusters, we can see some of the features of the cluster 0 which are high goals scored, and high goal scored against. We can see that there are a lot more instances in the cluster 1 than in the cluster 0.
Therefore, we run the Cook’s distance to see if there are games under this circumstance as cluster 0. We find out these games are both flagged for our analysis of Goal and GoalAgainst:
1st Home Game: Chelsea : Burnley 2:0
2nd Home Game: Chelsea : Swansea 4:2
6th Home Game: Chelsea : WBA 2:0
2nd Away Game: Everton : Chelsea 6:3
As we can see, all of these four games were taken place in the beginning of the season, and no recent game that are literally flagged both Goal and Goal Against, and please remember Chelsea wins all this four games by bigger margin than the average. This result actually makes sense since most of the teams in the beginning of the season prepare well and tends to perform better than the average. Therefore, in fact, the recent decline does not indicate that the team gets into any trouble or in a bad form, but regularly reflects the real strength of the team.
Chelsea is not an unbeatable team, even though they seemed like they are in the beginning of the season.