A couple weeks ago, we analyzed the premier league game between Manchester United and Burnley. Based on their performance, we came to the conclusion that Burnley should be capable of avoiding relegation. In fact, even though one of their major competitors, Aston Villa had gone through seven games losing streak until the victory against WBA yesterday. Burnley, however, did not catch the chance to get away from the relegation zone, only got 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses in the same period. As we observed in the review, the team should just stay in the bottom and sit in the 19th place. Today, we will analyze this team statistically and find out if the team still has the chance to avoid relegation.
First of all, we need to know that Burnley is not a consistent team. According to our statistics analysis, 8 Burnley games do not follow the usual pattern of offense, and 9 games do not follow the usual pattern of defense. Also, the distribution of these games in offense and defense are varied.
Here is the cook distance result of the games of offense,
Here is the cook distance results of the games of defense,
As we can see above, most of the inconsistent games are located between game 6 and game 13, which are home games for Burnley. Unlike what the manager claimed that the team is getting used of playing in the premier league, the team is getting confused about how they should play in their home field. In these nine games, Burnley got 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats. This record is better than what they did in the beginning of the season, but not good enough to guarantee them away from the relegation zone. They get 1.3 points per game during this period.
To take a look at their recent performance, we will do simple K-mean clustering. Same as before, we will have 4 clusters.
Here is visualization of the clustering assignment,
Here is partial result of the clustering centroids,
As we can see, there are 4 games in cluster 1, 3 games in cluster 3, and 2 games in cluster 2. Somehow, the team is improving in their pace, since there are not any games in cluster 0 during this home game period. On the other hand, to earn at least one point to move their position up in the table, they need to have positive Results in their game. As we take a look at the centroids of the clusters, we can see that only cluster 2 has a positive result. As we can see in the graph of clustering assignment, the distribution of games in cluster 2 is random, which means that the team can play some good games and consistently make their plays.
Therefore, we come to the conclusion that the team has not found its own way to victory. On the other hand, Burnley is not completely hopeless right now. At least one good news for them, unlike other teams in the league, they do not perform at home any worse than they do at away. As we can see above, in cluster 2, the Home number is 0.3333, which means that they tend to get better results in away games than in home games. Also, according to our statistics model, except the team would make more attempts in the wings at home (number of Throwins increases 6.692) than away, they do not perform any differently in other fields. This feature gives more chances to challenge for the victory than other teams highly rely on home play. One of their major competitors, QPR, is strongly relying on their home court play. Burnley has the advantage against them in the rest of the league competition.