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According to our data analysis, Manchester United is the most unpredictable team in the Premier League, regardless of their recent performance. Unlike most of the Premier League teams, which perform strongly related to Home plays, Manchester United performs indifferently no matter whether they play in the home court or not, which increases the uncertainty for our prediction. Also, Manchester United have never shown any dominant performance against any opponents; most of their games seem really shaky compared to their fame and squad.

People starts to believe in Manchester United going back on the right track and getting rid of the darkness since the six game winning streaks, but if take a look in depth about the games, we can see so interesting details:

For the number of shots, shown as below,

Home games:

14
9
18
8
15
19
23
15
10
11

Away games:

10
7
16
22
9
12
3
16

The winning streak started on Round Eleven, Home game against Crystal Palace, and since then, they won the last five home games. Lets compared the we run some data analysis, such as ANOVA test, to see if Manchester United perform significantly better during the winning streak. Here is some of our results,

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
w.l 1 19.6 19.60 0.825 0.39
Residuals 8 190.0 23.75

As we can see that the average number of shots barely improves during the winning streak. If we only analyze the number of shots, the result may be biased, so we run ANOVA test for some other indicators, Passing, Chances Created, and Crossing, which are some important offensive indicators, we come out with the similar result, Manchester United does not significantly improve.

Now we take a look at the defense. In this case, we run ANOVA tests on some important defensive indicators, tackles, interceptions, and aerial duels, we get the same conclusion as the offensive one, the team does not improve significantly neither.

If you know that this winning Manchester United is same as the one losing games in the beginning of the season, would you put so much trust on this team? In fact, this phenomenon was precedent, such as Kenny Dalglish’s Liverpool, and Arsenal in the last season. Also, according to our unique statistics analysis software, Manchester United is much more unpredictable than any other teams in Premier League.

Until we find out the actual variables that significantly change the team, please avoid betting on this team, regardless of whether you are a MU fans or not.

Zhiyao, Zhang

1/8/2015

 

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