Aston Villa, as one of the most historical teams in Britain, is facing the worst season in the last ten years. Now, they are sitting in the 16th spot, 2 points ahead the relegation zone, and having three losses in row and four losses in away game in row. Also, they have not scored any goal in the last six games. What happened to this historical team which has to suffer the pressure of relegation? we are going to use some statistic methods to find the answer.
First, According to our F-statistic result, Aston Villa does not perform any better in their home game than their away game. Aston Villa is the only one team in the league, which does not rely on home games. To further prove this observation, we use Clustering with the game stats in previous games of Aston Villa and get this table,
(click on the picture to view)
If Home equals to 1, it means the team plays in their home court; otherwise, they played in away court.
This team has played 23 league games already this season, and only three games they played are identified exactly as home game performance(Cluster 2). Five games they played are identified as close to be home games (Cluster 6). Three games they played are identified as fairly home games (Cluster 3). If we take a look at the game results, we can find out that the home game results are not better than ones of away games.
According to our clustering result, Cluster 1 and 5 has the worst results among all the clusters, so we would find some common points between these two clusters.
we discovered that the clusters tend to have similar average numbers in Fouls and Blocks.
(click on the picture to view)
As you can see in the table above, the average Fouls is approximately 12, and the average Blocks is 13. Foul numbers are larger than the average and the Block numbers are smaller than the average; does it mean that the big number of fouls and small numbers of blocks are the major reasons why they failed so hard in these games?
Literally, according to our statistic model about its offensive ability with 99.05% p-value, fouls actually contributes positively to the team scores. According to our statistic model about its defensive ability with 94.73% p-value, blocks contributes negatively to the team scores. Therefore, we can come up with one conclusion, the smaller number of blocks in a game, the better scores the team can get. The assumption about the influence of fouls is rejected.
Here are the numbers of blocks in the last six games,
these six games are
18th game Swansea 1 : 0 Aston Villa
19th game Aston Villa 0 : 0 Sunderland
20th game Aston Villa 0 : 0 Crystal Palace
21st game Leicester City 1 : 0 Aston Villa
22nd game Aston Villa 0 : 2 Liverpool
23rd game Arsenal 5 : 0 Aston Villa
Again, the recent performance proves that the number of blocks the team has in a game is a indicator to tell us how well the team can perform. Also, according to the table above about Blocks, we can see a clear pattern about how blocks number changes. This team tends to do well in minimizing the blocks in one game, and did badly in the next game. Therefore, we can expect this team to come back in some level in the game against Chelsea this week.